Increase in Atlantic hurricane activity expected after end of El Nino: NOAA


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday upped its chances for an above-average hurricane season, saying it now expects 10-17 named storms - an increase from its May prediction of nine-15 named storms, which must have winds of up to 39 miles per hour or greater.

The likelihood of near-normal activity is now at 35 percent and the chance of below-normal activity has dropped to 20 percent for this year's hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. "Armed with our next-generation satellites, sophisticated weather models, hurricane hunter aircraft, and the expertise of our forecasters, we are prepared to keep communities informed to help save lives and livelihoods".

- US weather officials are increasing the likelihood of an "above normal" hurricane season.

The original outlook for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season was released in May.

It has been predicted that the Atlantic Basin will see between 10 to 17 named storms, meaning tropical systems that are producing winds 39 miles per hour or greater. To be classified as a hurricane, a storm must carry winds of at least 74 miles per hour (mph) (119 kilometres per hour (km/h)). The chances of near-normal activity is now at 35 per cent and the odds of below-normal activity has dropped to 20 per cent.

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Conditions have become more favourable for hurricane growth as the El Niño phenomenon had ended, forecasters said in their midseason update. Two named storms - Andrea and Barry - formed so far during the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.

“We urge everyone to learn more about hurricane hazards and prepare now, ahead of time, so that if state and local authorities announce evacuations in advance of a storm, you and your family will have planned where to go and what to do to stay safe.”. They expected El Niño, a hurricane suppressant that creates wind shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, to cancel out conditions that have led to stronger hurricane activity since 1995.

"Everyone should know their risk, have a plan and be prepared", Bell said.

El Nino is the climate phenomenon characterized by warmer than average sea temperatures in the equatorial Pacific.