International Monetary Fund cuts global growth outlook, but predicts pick up later in 2019


Trump's aggressive trade policies, largely, but not exclusively, aimed at China, left United States products open to retaliation in the form of steep tariffs.

"This recovery is precarious and predicated to rebound in emerging markets and developing economies, where growth is projected to increase from 4.4 percent in 2019 to 4.8 percent in 2020", Gopinath said.

On the other side, the fund has projected a slowdown in global economic growth in 2019 due to the escalation of US-China trade tensions, credit tightening in China, normalisation of monetary policy in the larger advanced economies, among others.

President Donald Trump said he thought there was a "very good chance" of reaching a trade deal before he met with China's top trade negotiator and Vice Premier Liu He at the White House following the conclusion of the latest round of trade talks last Thursday.

Nigeria is China's biggest trading partner in Africa, and Africa is China's biggest trading continent globally, and it is believed the trade war could cause hike in prices and reduce business engagement in Nigeria.

The IMF said many risks to global growth would remain in place for the foreseeable future.

Global growth is seen easing to 3.3%, down from the January forecast of 3.5% and slower than the 3.6% climb posted in 2018.

Of the high-frequency indicators of industry, growth in the manufacturing component of the index of industrial production (IIP) slowed to 1.3% in January.

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The projected growth rate for next year was unchanged at 3.6%.

Cuts US to 2.3% from 2.5%. Policymakers need to work cooperatively to help ensure that policy uncertainty doesn't weaken investment, she said.

The IMF said it still expects that a sharp slowdown in Europe and some emerging market economies will give way to a general re-acceleration in the second half of 2019.

He said in whichever case, there should be social security for vulnerable population in any country, such that they are protected from further hardships.

The delegation led by finance minister including State Bank of Pakistan Governor Tariq Bajwa, Finance Secretary Younas Dagha, Economic Affairs Division Secretary Noor Ahmed and senior officials from these institutions would attend the spring meetings (April 9 - 14) of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank and finalise a bailout package to stabilise macroeconomic fundamentals on the sidelines.

"The projected recovery reflects modestly reduced but continued policy uncertainty in the South African economy after the May 2019 elections". The uptick in growth is expected to be fueled by monetary policy accommodations in major economies. "Well, one possibility is that we are not growing at 7 per cent".

However, Gopinath said that a continued trade tension between the USA and China would have a negative impact on oil prices and other commodities. Additionally, it calls for multilateral cooperation to address trade conflicts, climate challenges, cybersecurity issues and to enhance the effectiveness of the global tax system.

High levels of debt as well as sovereign borrowing costs will be reflected in weaker investment and will remain concerns for Italy, "especially given that growth in Italy is weak not just in real terms, but in nominal terms", she said.