What Canadians need to know about Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections


Trump has had a busy campaign schedule in the final stretch of the race, with 11 rallies over six days - including two planned Sunday and three Monday in Ohio, Indiana and Missouri. For his largely white, conservative Christian supporters, Trump can do little wrong, and the undeniable uptick in the economy has overcome whatever little reservations they may have had about his personal foibles.

We would have won if you'd focused more on the economy, Republicans on the Hill will answer.

Jim McLaughlin, a longtime Republican Party pollster, said Mr. Trump's 2016 victories were as much a rejection of the Obama years as they were an embrace of Trumpism.

"For an 18-year incumbent to even have that little bit of tightening, I think it shows that there is some undercurrent in the state that probably wasn't there prior to the Trump victory", said Mr. Yoon, who is also a visiting professor of journalism at the University of MI.

As much as the President will be celebrating, Kyle Kondik says he will also be relieved. This means an election occurs halfway through a president's term.

"After further review we recognize the insensitive nature of the ad and have chose to cease airing it across our properties as soon as possible", a spokesperson for the network said in a email.

However. the challenge is in the Senate, where the Democrats are defending 26 seats.

"We haven't yet proven to the electorate the Democrats are a threat to their prosperity and how they're doing right now", he said.

"If Republicans continue to hold everything, they would continue to be 100 per cent responsible for Washington".

Hurl noted numerous criticisms of global trade come from within the Democratic Party, but also said he thinks the USMCA deal is "relatively safe" regardless of Tuesday's outcome.

The President's critics say the highly charged atmosphere he has helped create made the two attackers feel sufficiently comfortable to carry out their crimes. But 23 is no sure thing: polls suggest their leads are narrow in numerous seats that could push them into the mid-20s or even the mid-30s.

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Congress could also grind to a halt, with the only things like legislation to deal with the debt ceiling or preventing a government shutdown finding bipartisan consensus. Republicans have commanding majorities in both chambers.

Indeed, powerful Democratic forces are already pushing for Trump's impeachment, even if Democratic leaders aren't ready to go that far.

A pre-midterms Ipsos poll for the Daily Beast found that "investigating and potentially impeaching" Mr Trump was the number one priority for self-identified Democratic voters. "People woke up and said 'Oh, we can't take this for granted. It's something that the American public will probably expect to come up, based on what they've been hearing in the lead-up to these elections", she said. Ryan seems to believe that the way to break the blue wave is to find those indies who are still left on the table, presumably by focusing on the economy.

Trump's Republican coalition is increasingly older, whiter, more male and less likely to have a college degree. "I think there's going to be a big backlash against Republicans because of this divisiveness".

There's only one problem.

"Congressional gridlock would happen".

Still, Mr. Madonna said there is no doubt that the 2016 Trump victory was part of a realignment. Following the controversy surrounding the Senate confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanuagh, the Generic Congressional Ballot was tied for two weeks, but then Democrats moved back ahead.

Democrats' path to try to regain control of the House goes all the way through California, where several Republican-held districts are in play and issues like immigration and health care ring loudly.

If Democrats can score historic gubernatorial wins in southern states - potentially giving Florida its first black governor and the nation its first black female governor in Georgia - it will be seen as a strong rebuke of Trump in an age of deep political polarization and racially divisive campaign messaging. A serious Republican challenger could try and win the nomination of the party for 2020. "But what I say is look what he's done for the country and not always what he's said on Twitter".

Whether that would fly with Republican voters, and Mr Trump's most loyal supporters, is another argument entirely.