Oil traders say $100 coming as OPEC struggles to fill Iran gap


Although he refrained from specifying how that could be done, Saudi Arabia is the only oil producer with significant spare capacity.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al Falih also ruled out the need to use spare capacity to increase oil output.

"My information is that the markets are adequately supplied".

Al Falih said returning to 100 per cent compliance was the main objective and should be achieved in the next two to three months.

Global benchmark Brent crude for November delivery was up at 79.40 dollars a barrel.

When Trump in May announced plans to reimpose sanctions on Iran's oil exports, the market estimated a cut of about 300,000 to 700,000 barrels a day, according to Trafigura's Luckock.

Non-member production overall is forecast to rise by 8.6 mbd to 66.1 mbd by 2023 on higher global demand, the report added, but a relative tapering off from 2020 will see cartel members' crude production shrug off a medium-term trend fall, OPEC predicted. Trump wrote on Sunday.

"Today, the JMMC meeting is being held in Algeria, and I hope that the outcome of this meeting will not be affected by President Trump's threatening tweet", Zanganeh said on Sunday.

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Major oil trading houses are predicting the return of $100 crude for the first time since 2014 as OPEC and its allies struggle to compensate for USA sanctions on Iran's exports.

The threats of disruption as well as the early supply cuts have helped to lift Brent crude futures to almost $80 a barrel this month, a level not seen since 2014.

In June this year, however, after months of cutting by more than their pact had called for, largely due to involuntary reductions from Venezuela and other producers, they agreed to boost output by returning to 100 percent compliance.

That equates to an increase of about 1 million bpd, but the latest figures show they are some way from achieving that target.

South Korea has bought no Iranian crude oil for about three months after the reimposition of USA sanctions on Tehran, a spokesman for the Iranian oil ministry was quoted as saying on Sunday by the ministry news website SHANA.

The OPEC/non-OPEC monitoring committee next meets on November 11 in Abu Dhabi, followed by a full OPEC gathering at its Vienna headquarters on December 6-7.

The move helped push crude prices LOc1 to a four-year high near $81 a barrel on Monday.