"As we go more towards the fourth quarter, that's when we really see the risk of prices going well into the 80s and potentially even into the 90s but very critical is how much Iranian production we lose", CNBC quoted Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, as saying.
The August total is also likely to be just above the 9.65 million barrels imported over the first seven months, showing the scale of acceleration in India's imports of USA crude.
Oil prices fell on Wednesday, following Chinese import data that highlighted an ongoing slowdown in demand from previously avid buyers, although evidence of falling US crude inventories and the introduction of Iranian sanctions helped stem losses.
Looking ahead to 2020-21, Della Vigna anxious that the impacts of the slowing pace of new projects will start to be felt, and US shale will begin to decline; however, he said now is a ideal opportunity for "big oil" firms to negotiate better tax terms with governments and "do more activity - that doesn't necessarily mean more money".
Prior to this deal, International Olympic Committee had struck deals for importing 10 million barrels from six cargoes in the spot market.
Our outlook for crude oil remains neutral.
"We are seeing that Indian refiners are now more open to consider mini term deals for USA supplies - for example one United States cargo per month". Nationwide crude inventories as well as supplies stored in the key hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, slipped last week, the American Petroleum Institute was said to report.More news: Chinese Exports Accelerate As US Prepares New Tariffs In Heated Row
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The expected paring of India's imports from Iran after this month and the increase in purchases from the United States also raise questions about the politics of oil.
FGE said Indian private refiners, Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy, previously known as Essar, were already sharply reducing imports from Iran ahead of the November deadline.
The general take by traders at this time is that crude prices are almost balanced at this time due to a comfortable supply. "Iranian imports will likely nosedive on high compliance".
Saudi Arabia pumped around 10.29 million bpd of crude in July, down about 200,000 bpd from a month earlier.
The nation's outflow has fallen, and Iran is having to rely more on its own fleet of tankers to carry oil to its customers, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. RIL did not buy Iranian crude at the time.
That means there is much less slack in the oil market than before.
Donald Trump's administration on Monday reimposed a blanket ban on Iran that would effectively prevent any company from doing business with it, by limiting Iran's access to dollar, gold and precious metals.
Unipec and Sinopec, Asia's largest refiner and biggest buyer of USA oil, did not respond to requests for comment.