Good news! India will see normal monsoon this year, says IMD chief


Last year, the country as a whole received rainfall that was 95 per cent of its long-period average. A figure between 96 to 104 percent is considered normal monsoon.

In a news that would bring cheer to the Indian economy, the IMD says the country would experience normal monsoon this year. "Monsoon 2018 is likely to remain normal at 97 per cent (with an error margin of +/-5 per cent) of the long period average (LPA) for the four-month period from June to September", Ramesh told a press conference. Operational forecasts for the southwest monsoon season rainfall are issued in two stages. It also predicted that the rain showers would be evenly distributed across the country.

Monday forecast that the monsoon this year will be normal, with rainfall of 97 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with an error of plus or minus five per cent.

Why good rain is vital for Indian economy and what is its significance in the current political landscape? At that point of time, apart from an updated forecast for the country as a whole and the season in its entirety, the department would issue separate forecasts for rainfall for the months of July and August for the country as a whole and season-wide rainfall for the four distinct geographical areas - north-west India, south peninsula, north-east India and Central India.

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The IMD issues its first monsoon forecast in April and updates it in June.

Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has said rainfall in 2018 will be normal at 100 per cent of the LPA.

Monsoon rains, the lifeline of the country's United States dollars 2 trillion economy, are expected to be 97 per cent of a long-term average.

Successive years of drought in 2014 and 2015 led to a fall in crop production and poor agriculture sector growth rate which fell to a low of -0.8% in 2014-15 and -0.1% in 2015-16.